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The following are some publications using the ST-Sim Package within SyncroSim.

ST-Sim Methods

Please cite this paper when using ST-Sim:

Daniel, C., Frid, L., Sleeter, B., & Fortin, M. J. 2016. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12597

Please also cite this paper when using the Stock-Flow Add-On Package for ST-Sim:

Daniel, C., Sleeter, B., Frid, L., & Fortin, M. J. 2018. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12952

Publications Using ST-Sim


Sleeter, B. M., Marvin, D. C., Cameron, D. R., Selmants, P. C., Westerling, L., Kreitler, J., Daniel, C. J., Liu, J., Wilson, T. S. 2019. Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.14677

Hart, S. J., Henkelman, J., McLoughlin, P. D., Nielsen, S. E., Truchon-Savard, A., and Johnstone, J. F. 2019. Examining forest resilience to changing fire frequency in a fire-prone region of boreal forest. Global Change Biology 25:869–884.

Haugo, R. D., Kellogg, B. S., Cansler, C. A., Kolden, C. A., Kemp, K. B., Robertson, J., Metlen, K. L., Vaillant, N. M., and Restaino, C. M. 2019. The missing fire: quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA. Ecosphere 10( 4):e02702. 10.1002/ecs2.2702

Jarnevich, C. S., Cullinane Thomas, C., Young, N. E., Backer, D., Cline, S., Frid, L., and Grissom, P. 2019. Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives. Ecosphere 10( 5):e02730. 10.1002/ecs2.2730


Ford, P. L., Reeves, M. C., & Frid, L. 2018. A tool for projecting rangeland vegetation response to management and climate. Rangelands.

Halofsky, J.S., Conklin, D.R., Donato, D.C., Halofsky, J.E., & Kim, J.B. 2018. Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.. PLOS ONE 13(12): e0209490.

Halofsky, J.S., Donato, D.C., Franklin, J.F., Halofsky, J.E., Peterson, D.L., & Harvey, B.J. 2018. The nature of the beast: Examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes. Ecosphere 9.

Sleeter, B., Liu, J., Daniel, C., Rayfield, B., Sherba, J., Hawbaker, T.J., Zhu, Z., Selmants, P.C., & Loveland, T.R. 2018. Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States. Environmental Research Letters.


Chaves-Fonnegra, A., Riegl, B., Zea, S., Lopez, J. V., Smith, T., Brandt, M., & Gilliam, D. S. 2017. Bleaching events regulate shifts from corals to excavating sponges in algae-dominated reefs. Global Change Biology, (September).

Miller, B. W., Symstad, A. J., Frid, L., Fisichelli, N. A., & Schuurman, G. W. 2017. Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota. Ecosphere, 8(12), e02020.

Wilson, T.S., Sleeter, B.M., & Cameron, D.R.. 2017. Mediterranean California’s water use future under scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change. PLOS One 12(10): e0187181

Sleeter, B. M., Wilson, T. S., Sharygin, E. & Sherba, J. 2017. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends. Earth's Future. doi:10.1002/2017EF000560

Daniel, C. J., Ter-Mikaelian, M. T., Wotton, B. M., Rayfield, B., & Fortin, M.J. 2017. Incorporating uncertainty into forest management planning: Timber harvest, wildfire and climate change in the boreal forest. Forest Ecology and Management, 400, 542–554. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.06.039

Sleeter, R., Sleeter, B.M., Williams, B., Hogan, D., Hawbaker, T. & Zhu, Z. 2017. A carbon balance model for the Great Dismal Swamp ecosystem. Carbon Balance and Management. 12: 20 pp. doi: 10.1186/s13021-017-0070-4

Sleeter, B. M., Wood, N. J., Soulard, C. E., & Wilson, T. S. 2017. Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: a case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.02.015


Costanza, J. K., Abt, R. C., McKerrow, A. J., & Collazo, J. A. 2016. Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12386

Tarr, N. M., Rubino, M. J., Costanza, J. K., McKerrow, A. J., Collazo, J. A., & Abt, R. C. 2016. Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12383

Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., & Cameron, D. R. 2016. Future land-use related water demand in California. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5), 054018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054018


Blankenship, K., Frid, L. & Smith, J. L. 2015. A state-and-transition simulation modeling approach for estimating the historical range of variability. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2), 253–268.

Costanza, J. K., Abt, C. R., McKerrow, A. J. & Collazo, J. A. 2015. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2), 180–202.

Costanza, J. K., Terando, A. J., McKerrow, A. J. & Collazo, J. A. 2015. Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S. Journal of Environmental Management, 151, 186–199.

Miller, B. W., Frid, L., Chang, T., Piekielek, N., Hansen, A. J. & Morisette, J. T. 2015. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2), 400–426.

O'Donnell, M. S. 2015. Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3), 464-493.

Sherba, J. T., Sleeter, B. M., Davis, A. W. & Parker, O. 2015. Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3), 623-647.

Sleeter, R. R., Acevedo, W., Soulard, C. E. & Sleeter, B. M. 2015. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3), 668-693.

Sleeter, B. M., Liu, J., Daniel, C., Frid, L. & Zhu, Z. 2015. An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3), 464-493.

Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., Sherba, J. & Cameron, D. 2015. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios. AIMS Environmental Science 2(2): 282-301.

Wilson, T., Costanza, J., Smith, J. & Morisette, J. 2015. Second State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 96:174–175.


Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., Sleeter, R. R. & Soulard, C. E. 2014. Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach. Land 3: 362-389.

Other Publications Using State-and-Transition Simulation Models

Price, J. M., Silbernagel, J., Nixon, K., Swearingen, A., Swaty, R., & Miller, N. 2016. Collaborative scenario modeling reveals potential advantages of blending strategies to achieve conservation goals in a working forest landscape. Landscape Ecology, 31(5), 1093–1115. doi:10.1007/s10980-015-0321-2

Provencher, L., Frid, L., Czembor, C., & Morisette, J. T. 2016. State-and-Transition Models: Conceptual Versus Simulation Perspectives, Usefulness and Breadth of Use, and Land Management Applications. In M. J. Germino, J. C. Chambers, & C. S. Brown (Eds.), Exotic Brome-Grasses in Arid and Semiarid Ecosystems of the Western US (pp. 371–407). Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London: Springer.

Jarnevich, C. S., Holcombe, T. R., Cullinane Thomas, C., Frid, L. & Olsson, A. 2015. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2), 427–447.

Swearingen, A., Price, J., Silbernagel, J., Swaty, R. & Miller, N. 2015. State-and-transition simulation modeling to compare outcomes of alternative management scenarios under two natural disturbance regimes in a forested landscape in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3), 737-763.

Creutzburg, M. K., Henderson, E. B. & Conklin, D. R. 2015. Climate change and land management impact rangeland condition and sage-grouse habitat in southeastern Oregon. AIMS Environmental Science 2(2): 203-236.

Creutzburg, M. K., Halofsky, J. E., Halofsky, J. S. & Christopher, T. A. 2015. Climate change and land management in the rangelands of central Oregon. Environmental Management, 55(1), 43–55.

Haugo, R., Zanger, C., DeMeo, T., Ringo, C., Shlisky, A., Blankenship, K., Simpson, M., Mellen-McLean, K., Kertis, J. & Stern, M. 2015. A new approach to evaluate forest structure restoration needs across Oregon and Washington, USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 335, 37–50.

Yospin, G. I., Bridgham, S. D., Neilson, R. P., Bolte, J. P., Bachelet, D. M., Gould, P. J., Harrington, C. A., Kertis, J. A., Evers, C. & Johnson, B. R. 2014. A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for local land management. Ecological Applications, 25(1), 226–242.

Halofsky, J. S., Halofsky, J. E., Burcsu, T. & Hemstrom, M. A. 2014. Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate-management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape. Ecological Applications, 24(8), 1908–1925.

Nixon, K., Silbernagel, J., Price, J., Miller, N. & Swaty, R. 2014. Habitat availability for multiple avian species under modeled alternative conservation scenarios in the Two Hearted River watershed in Michigan, USA. Journal for Nature Conservation 22: 302-317.

Halofsky, J. E., Hemstrom, M. A., Conklin, D. R., Halofsky, J. S., Kerns, B. K. & Bachelet, D. 2013. Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach. Ecological Modelling 266:131-143.

Evers, L. B., Miller, R. F., Doescher, P. S., Hemstrom, M. & Neilson, R. P. 2013. Simulating Current Successional Trajectories in Sagebrush Ecosystems With Multiple Disturbances Using a State-and-Transition Modeling Framework. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 66: 313–329.

Provencher, L., Anderson, T., Low, G., Hamilton, B., Williams, T. & Roberts, B. 2013. Landscape conservation forecasting TM for Great Basin National Park. Park Science, 30: 56–67.

Blankenship, K., Provencher, L., Frid, L., Daniel, C. & Smith, J. 2013. Human Dimensions of State-and-Transition Simulation Model Applications to Support Decisions in Wildland Fire Management. P. 28-33 IN: Fox RL (Ed) (2012) Proceedings of 3rd Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire Conference, 17-19 April 2012, Seattle, WA. International Association of Wildland Fire. (CD-ROM) (Missoula, MT).

Frid, L., Hanna, D., Korb, N., Bauer, B., Bryan, K., Martin, B. & Holzer, B. 2013. Evaluating Alternative Weed Management Strategies for Three Montana Landscapes. Invasive Plant Science and Management, 6: 48–59.

Frid, L., Holcombe, T., Morisette, J. T., Olsson, A. D., Brigham, L., Bean, T. M., Betancourt, J. L., et al. 2013. Using State-and-Transition Modeling to Account for Imperfect Detection in Invasive Species Management. Invasive Plant Science and Management, 6: 36–47.

Frid, L., Knowler, D., Myers, J. H., Scott, L. & Murray, C. 2013. A multi-scale framework for evaluating the benefits and costs of alternative management strategies against invasive plants. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. 56: 412-434,

Costanza, J. K., Hulcr, J., Koch, F. H., Earnhardt, T., McKerrow, A. J., Dunn, R. R. & Collazo, J. A. 2012. Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future. Ecological Modelling 244: 93-103

Daniel, C. J. & Frid, L. 2012. Predicting landscape vegetation dynamics using state-and-transition simulation models. In: Kerns, Becky K.; Shlisky, Ayn J.; Daniel, Colin J., tech. eds. Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14–16, 2011, Portland, Oregon. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-869. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 5-22..

Price, J., Silbernagel, J., Miller, N., Swaty, R., White, M. & Nixon, K. 2012. Eliciting expert knowledge to inform landscape modeling of conservation scenarios. Ecological Modelling 229: 76-87

Swaty, R., Blankenship, K., Hagen, S., Fargione, J., Smith, J. & Patton, J. 2011. Accounting for ecosystem alteration doubles estimates of conservation risk in the conterminous United States. PLoS ONE 6(8): e23002.

Holcombe, T. R. 2011. Buffelgrass—Integrated modeling of an invasive plant. U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2011–3022, 2 p.

Czembor, C. A., Morris, W. K., Wintle, B. A. & Vesk, P. A. 2011. Quantifying variance components in ecological models based on expert opinion. Journal of Applied Ecology.

Costanza, J., Earnhardt, T., Terando, A. & McKerrow, A. 2010. Modeling Vegetation Dynamics and Habitat Availability in the Southeastern U.S. Using GAP Data. Gap Analysis Bulletin, 18, 24–31.

Low, G., Provencher, L. & Abele, S. L. 2010. Enhanced conservation action planning: Assessing landscape condition and predicting benefits of conservation strategies. Journal of Conservation Planning 6:36-60.

Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. 2010. Forest Management Guide for Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Forests. Toronto: Queen's Printer for Ontario. 56 pp.

Czembor, C. A. & Vesk, P. A. 2009. Incorporating between-expert uncertainty into state-and-transition simulation models for forest restoration. Forest Ecology and Management 259(2):165-175.

Frid, L. & Wilmshurst, J. F. 2009. Decision analysis to evaluate control strategies for Crested Wheatgrass in Grasslands National Park of Canada. Invasive Plant Science and Management 2(4): 324–336.

Klenner, W. & Walton, R. 2009. Landscape-level habitat supply modelling to develop and evaluate management practices that maintain diverse forest values in a dry forest ecosystem in southern British Columbia. Forest Ecology and Management 258S: S146–S157.

Strand, E. K., Vierling, L. A. & Bunting, S. C. 2009. A spatially explicit model to predict future landscape composition of aspen woodlands under various management scenarios. Ecological Modelling 220 (2): 175-191.

Zweig, C. L. & Kitchens, W. M. 2009. Multi-state succession in wetlands: a novel use of state and transition models. Ecology, 90(7): 1900–1909.

Provencher, L., Campbell, J. & Nachlinger, J. 2008. Implementation of mid-scale fire regime condition class mapping. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17:390-406.

Carlson, M. & Kurz, W. A.2007. Approximating natural landscape pattern using aggregated harvest. Can. J. For. Res. 37: 1846-1853.

Miller, C. 2007. Simulation of the consequences of different fire regimes to support wildland fire use decisions. Fire Ecology 3(2): 83-102.

Hemstrom, M. A, Merzenich, J., Reger, A. & Wales, B.. 2007. Integrated analysis of landscape management scenarios using state and transition models in the upper Grande Ronde River Subbasin, Oregon, USA. Landscape and Urban Planning 80: 198-211. [Abstract only]

Provencher, L., Forbis, T. A., Frid, L. & Medlyn, G. 2007. Comparing alternative management strategies of fire, grazing, and weed control using spatial modeling. Ecological Modelling 209: 249-263.

Wondzell, S. M., Hemstrom, M. A. & Bisson, P. A. 2007. Simulating riparian vegetation and aquatic habitat dynamics in response to natural and anthropogenic disturbance regimes in the Upper Grande Ronde River, Oregon, USA. Landscape and Urban Planning. 80 (3): 249-267.

Forbis, T. A., Provencher, L., Frid, L. & Medlyn, G. 2006. Great Basin land management planning using ecological modeling. Environmental Management 38(1):62-83.

Merzenich, J. & Frid, L. 2005. Projecting Landscape Conditions in Southern Utah Using VDDT. In: M. Bevers and T.M. Barrett (comps.). 2005. Systems Analysis in Forest Resources: Proceedings of the 2003 Symposium; October 7-9, Stevenson, WA. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-656. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. pp. 157-163.

Shlisky, A. J., Guyette, R. P. & Ryan, K. C. 2005. Modeling reference conditions to restore altered fire regimes in oak-hickory-pine forests: validating coarse models with local fire history data. EastFire Conference Proceedings. George Mason University , Fairfax , VA. May 12-13, 2005.

Merzenich, J., Kurz, W., Beukema, S., Arbaugh, M. & Schilling, S. 2003. Determining forest fuel treatments for the Bitterroot front using VDDT. In: G.J. Arthaud and T.M. Barrett (eds.). Systems Analysis in Forest Resources. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 47-59.

Hann, W. J. & Bunnell, D. L. 2001. Fire and land management planning and implementation across multiple scales. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10:389-403.

Hemstrom, M. A., Korol, J. J. & Hann, W. J. 2001. Trends in terrestrial plant communities and landscape health indicate the effects of alternative management strategies in the interior Columbia River basin. Forest Ecology and Management 153:105-125.

Arbaugh, M. J., Schilling, S., Merzenich, J. & Van Wagtendonk, J. W. 2000. A test of the strategic fuels management model VDDT using historical data from Yosemite National Park. In: L.F. Neuenschwander and K.C. Ryan (tech. eds.). Proc. Joint Fire Sci. Conf. and Workshop, Vol II. Univ Idaho and Int. Assoc. Wildland Fire. pp. 85-89.

Klenner, W., Kurz, W. & Beukema, S. 2000. Habitat patterns in forested landscapes: management practices and the uncertainty associated with natural disturbances. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 27: 243-262.

Kurz, W. A., Beukema, S. J., Klenner, W., Greenough, J. A., Robinson, D. C. E., Sharpe, A. D. & Webb, T. M. 2000. TELSA: the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 27: 227-242.